نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 پژوهشگر پسا دکتری دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشیار جغرافیای طبیعی،دانشکده جغرافیا وبرنامه ریزی محیطی،دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان،زاهدان،ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Kish Island is one of the important tourist destinations of Iran. So, 7 GCM models were used. After their performance based on the skill score, the best models were selected. Next, the effect of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios on Kish tourism was investigated based on the tourism climate index and the linear scaling method was used to correct the bias of GCM models. The results showed that the parameters effective in estimating the index will have significant changes in the coming years so that the temperature in the base period will go from 25.27 C to 29.63 C and 30.33 C respectively under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios in the perspective of 2069-2050. In addition to the temperature, the precipitation changes are also in the increasing region, the highest increase according to the pessimistic scenario is 62.5% for the period of 2080-2099. In this way, the time periods of tourism in the future climate will change in Kish Island: so in the current conditions February and March are the best times for tourism on the island with ideal conditions, while in the future perspective, only the month of February shows ideal conditions, on the other hand, the situation is slightly unfavorable in The current period includes 4 months of June, July, August, and September, which will eventually cover up to 8 months of the year. Addressing the issue of climate change in the tourism area becomes important in formulating the country's future development plans with a focus on climate change.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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