نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 فارغ التحصیل
2 بخش شهرسازی ، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز ، ایران
3 استاد بخش شهرسازی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Today, tourism development is recognized as one of the important strategies for achieving sustainable development and has found a particular place in the development plans of various countries. The aim of this study is to identify tourism development scenarios with a futures studies approach in Khorramabad County. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and has an analytical-exploratory nature and is based on future study methods. The data and information collection method is documentary and field and the population of this research was 14 experts in the field of tourism and spatial planning. To analyze the data, the cross-impact analysis method, MICMAC software and Scenario Wizard were used.The findings of this study showed that 12 key factors are effective in the development of tourism in the study area, which, according to scenario analysis, leads to 36 possible situations. After analysis of possible scenarios, 3 scenarios with very high scores and a high probability of occurrence, 11 plausible scenarios and 3471 scenarios with a low probability have been shown in the development of tourism. In addition, a static scenario with a favorable trend is known to be the most probable scenario. Finally, strategies and policies have been proposed for tourism development in the study area according to the selected scenario.