نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی،دانشگاه پیام نور تهران،ایران.
2 هیأت علمی گروه جغرافیای انسانی دانشگاه تهران
3 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، مرکز تحصیلات تکمیلی دانشگاه پیام نور
عنوان مقاله [English]
The present study, with a futuristic approach identifies the most important affecting factors and the extent and way of influencing these factors on each other and on the future status of sustainable tourism in Kerman. This research is based on new futurist methods which is carried out using a combanition of quantitative and qualitative modeld. Due to the nature of this research, structural analysis, MIC MAC and Delphi have been used. In this regard, after holding initial discussions with fifteen elite and tourism experts of Kerman as the statistical population of the study, 50variables were identified in the form of four general dimensions as initial variables. In the following, the initial variables were defined in the framework of the cross effects matrix in the MICMAC foresight software. The results show that what can be understood from the state of the dispersion page of the variables indicates the system instability, with most of the variables dispersed around the diagonal axis of the screen. Finally, due to the high direct and indirect impact, ten major factors are influential as key factors in the future of sustainable tourism development in Kerman. Among factors, the most influential factor in the development of sustainable tourism in Kerman is competitiveness, and the removal of travel barriers, the expansion of tourismrelated spaces, environmental degradation as a result of the over-construction of second homes, and participation and solidarity at a later stage is important.