نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 گروه آموزشی جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی دانشگاه تبریز
2 عضو هیات علمی / دانشگاه تبریز
3 گروه برنامه ریزی روستایی دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز
عنوان مقاله [English]
Today rural tourism has become one of the most important economic sectors in many countries in the world, and governments have developed various policies aimed at developing rural from the local to the national level. In the meantime, the potential contribution of tourism in rural economics is fraught with uncertainties, which should be used for future prospecting to understand its future. In this regard, the present study tries to address the formulation of tourism sustainable development scenarios of tourism destination villages - saqez county using Morphol software. This research is an applied one and it is descriptive-analytic in nature and method. The data and information required for the research are a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collected through documentary and survey studies (interviewing experts). FL MicMac software was used to analyze data and identifying key factors and Morphological analysis and Morphol software were used to analyze and formulate the scenarios. The results of the study indicate the impact of 10 key factors. According to the scenario analyses, these factors lead to 40 possible conditions. The results of the Morphol software indicate that there are four scenarios with strong compatibility that are more likely to occur in the future development of sustainable tourism in the study villages. Each of these scenarios is compared using components such as "probability percentage", "inertia value" and "degree of utility of each scenario", and finally the third scenario is selected. Its constituent hypotheses indicate a positive trend and move towards the principles of sustainable development.