عنوان مقاله [English]
Tourism is recognized as the world's largest service industry in terms of revenue generation. The development of this industry is particularly important for developing countries, which are faced with many problems, including high unemployment, limited currency reserves and a single-product economy.
The main purpose of the present research is to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the tourism sector of Iran. For this purpose, first, using the official exchange rate data, we obtained exchange rate fluctuations through ARCH / GARCH model variance models, and then with work The using of ARDL distortion self-oscillation pattern model has been used to estimate long-term and short-run relationships between research variables during the years 1360-1394. The results of the estimation of the study show that there is a significant and negative correlation between exchange rate fluctuations and incoming tourists to Iran, and there is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and gross domestic product and consumer price index.
Keywords: volatility Rate Fluctuations, Tourism, ARDL, Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index