Journal of Tourism and Development

Journal of Tourism and Development

The Formulation Of Sustainable Development Scenarios Of Rural Tourism With A Foresight Approach (Case Study: Tourism Destination Villages-Saqez County)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Bahare Rahimipour 1
Mohammad Zaheri 2
Hossein Karimzadeh 3
1 PhD Student Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Azarbaijan Sharghi, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Tabriz university, Tabriz, Azarbaijan Sharghi, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Tabriz university, Tabriz, Azarbaijan Sharghi, Iran.
10.22034/jtd.2022.295243.2404
Abstract
Nowadays foresight is widely used across an array of sciences, planning and policy makings. Scenario planning is one the methods of future studies- a tool for analyzing the policies, understanding the conditions, the threats, the needs and the superior values of the future. In this regard, the present study tries to address the formulation of tourism sustainable development scenarios of tourism destination villages - saqez county using Morphol software. This research is an applied one and it is descriptive-analytic in nature and method. The data and information required for the research are a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collected through documentary and survey studies (interviewing experts). FL MicMac software was used to analyze data and identifying key factors and Morphological analysis and Morphol software were used to analyze and formulate the scenarios. The results of the study indicate the impact of 10 key factors. According to the scenario analyses, these factors lead to 40 possible conditions. The results of the Morphol software indicate that there are four scenarios with strong compatibility that are more likely to occur in the future development of sustainable tourism in the study villages. Then, by comparing the scenarios with the help of components such as "probability percentage", "inertia value" and "degree of utility ", the third scenario is selected as the optimal scenario which shows the movement towards relative participation and solidarity between people and tourists, system planning for climate sustainability of tourism destination villages, relative awareness of people and tourists, relative competition between tourism destination villages. Establish integrated rural management and concessions to the private sector for more activity in the field of tourism need such a move. This scenario seeks to grow tourism through the implementation of a comprehensive tourism plan and attract investors from outside the region. Through increasing the attention of governmental and non-governmental institutions create the fundamental changes in tourism resource quality planning to travel to the studied villages.
Keywords
Sustainable Development
Foresight
Mic Mac
Morphological Analysis
Saqez county
 
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