تحلیل و بازبینی ارتباط درآمدها و مخارج بخش گردشگری با رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی جدید از علیت پنلی در کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیار اقتصاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

3 استاد اقتصاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان

10.22034/jtd.2018.81138

چکیده

چکیده:
گردشگری به‌عنوان یک منبع مهم مبادله ارز در سطح بین‌المللی شناخته‌شده که می‌تواند منابع مالی جهت رشد اقتصادی در کشورها را تأمین کند. درآمدهای گردشگری نمونه‌ای از موارد جایگزین صادرات است که می‌تواند باعث بهبود در تعادل تراز پرداخت‌ها، افزایش اشتغال و درنهایت رشد اقتصادی شود. در این راستا این مطالعه به بررسی ارتباط و رابطه علیت بین درآمدها و مخارج گردشگری با رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (MENA) طی دوره (2015-1995) با استفاده از رهیافت داده‌های تابلویی می‌پردازد. بدین منظور در این مطالعه یک رویکرد جدید برای فرضیه گردشگری منجر به رشد، ارائه شده و روابط علی بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی در قالب چهار فرضیه رشد، حفاظت، بازخورد و بی‌طرفی طبقه‌بندی می‌شود. این طبقه‌بندی جدید باعث می‌شود رابطه علت و معلولی متفاوت موجود بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی در هر کشور به‌طور خاص توضیح داده شود. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که علیرغم رابطه علیت دوطرفه بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی (تأیید فرضیه بازخورد) برای مجموعه کشورها، اما برای هریک از کشورها، جهت‌گیری علیت بین گردشگری و رشد اقتصادی، بسته به وضعیت کشور و شاخص گردشگری استفاده شده متفاوت است. همچنین نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که ارتباط مثبت بین درآمدها و مخارج گردشگری با رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای موردمطالعه وجود دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis and review of the link between receipts and expenditures of the tourism sector with economic growth: new evidence of panel causality in The Middle East and North Africa

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Sarkhosh Sara 1
  • khadijh Nasrollahi 2
  • karim azarbaiejani 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate of Economics, University of Isfahan, Department of Economics, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate professor of Economics, University of Isfahan, Department of Economics, Isfahan, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, University of Isfahan, Department of Economics, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Tourism is known as an important source of international currency exchange that can provide funding for economic growth in the countries. Tourism revenues are an example of alternative exports, which can improve balance of payments, increase employment and finally economic growth. In this regard, this study reviews the causality relationship between the tourism receipts and expenditure with economic growth in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) during 1995-2015 using the panel data approach. So, in this study a new approach to hypothesis of tourism leads to growth is proposed and the causal relationships between tourism and economic growth are classified in four hypotheses growth, conservation, feedback and impartiality. This new classification leads to explain the different causal relationship between tourism and economic growth for each country specially. The obtained results shows that despite of the relationship bilateral causality between tourism and economic growth (confirmation of feedback hypothesis) for a set of countries, for each of countries, the causality orientation between tourism and economic growth, depending on the country's situation and the tourism indicator used is different. Also it shows that, there is a positive relationship between tourism receipts and expenditures with economic growth in the countries under study

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: "Economic Growth"
  • "Tourism"
  • "Panel Data"
  • "Panel Causality"
  • "MENA Countries"

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